February 3, 2011
Investors facing a global economy that is moving back and forth between “risk on” and “risk off” should look to emerging markets and commodities, Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, told CNBC Thursday.
In the long term, emerging markets “are going to be growing much faster than developed economies,” Roubini said, speaking at the Russia Forum in Moscow.
But inflation is a concern in emerging markets, which are behind the curve in tightening monetary policy and where two-thirds of consumption is food and energy, he said.
Advanced economies may see a jump in headline inflation, but core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is not currently a problem, Roubini said.
While commodity prices are jumping, advanced economies are seeing unit labor costs falling and wages growing less than productivity, he said.
The exception is the United Kingdom, he added.
Sharp rises in commodity prices also raise a risk of turmoil in Middle East countries affecting the global economy, Roubini said.
Three out of the last five recessions have been due to oil shocks because of political shifts in the Middle East, he said.