Oil & Gas Exports to Asia: Deciphering the Message in a Fortune Cookie

DAY ONE, 14:45-16:00

Oil and gas exports to traditional European markets – vitally important for the Russian economy – are coming under increasing competitive pressure. One major emerging alternative is to intensely develop oil and gas reserves in Eastern Siberia and offshore Far East to secure a basis for large-scale oil and gas exports to Asia, more specifically to China. Russia’s energy strategy through 2030 envisages spectacular growth in the oil and gas production share of Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East in the country’s total, from a respective 3% and 2% in 2008 to a whopping 18-19% and 15% in 2030. This new production implies a spike in eastbound oil and oil product exports from 8% to 22-25% of the total. The prospects for Russian gas exports to China and other Asian countries are also promising. That said, Russia faces a number of hurdles to fulfill its new export strategy. Exploration and development of oil and gas reserves in Eastern Siberia and the Far East is behind schedule, mainly due to the government’s inconsistent tax policy and potential investors’ restricted access to strategic reserves. Other large target markets (Japan) are saturated, while penetration in others (China) is challenged by lingering pricing issues and tougher competition from other energy sources.

Topics to discuss:
How much room is left for Russian gas in China?
Eastern Siberia’s oil production potential and exports to Asia-Pacific countries.

Russian oil companies’ opportunities in China’s downstream sector.